Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1543 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair decreased to the target level of 1.1516.

Yesterday's reduction in the U.S. trade deficit, along with a low level of initial jobless claims, triggered a noticeable revival in the financial markets. These macroeconomic indicators, suggesting potential improvements in trade positions and consolidation in the labor market, served as a strong impetus for investment in the U.S. currency.

Today, the first half of the day looks interesting for macroeconomic events. The most significant interest lies in Eurozone data, particularly indicators of industrial production changes. This indicator is critical for assessing the state of the manufacturing sector. Given its weakness, it is expected that the data will provide deeper insights into companies' operational activities, their production strategies, and the overall business sentiment. Concurrently, the Italian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also expected to be released. This indicator reflects price fluctuations in consumer goods and services and is a key indicator of inflation trends. The release of this data is unlikely to cause significant fluctuations in the currency market, but it is still worth considering when making trading decisions.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today when the price reaches an entry point around 1.1512 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1536. At 1.1536, I intend to exit the market and also sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can anticipate the euro's growth today only after good data from Italy and the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1498 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1512 and 1.1536.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1498 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1470, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1512 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1498 and 1.1470.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.