Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Only a few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday, but among them are significant reports. The day will begin with the release of Germany's trade balance and industrial production data. Given the current circumstances, this data is secondary and is unlikely to attract much market interest. On the other hand, in the US, the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports will be published, which could provoke a strong reaction from traders. Additionally, less significant reports on wages and consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan will also be released in the US.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Friday, we can highlight the speeches of Christine Lagarde and representatives from the European Central Bank (Cipollone, de Guindos, Schnabel) and the Federal Reserve (Goolsbee, Waller, Daly, Bowman). However, last week there were meetings of the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England, so traders are well aware of the positions of all central banks on monetary policy. We learned that the Fed is not inclined to change its monetary policy in 2026, while the ECB and the BoE have adopted a wait-and-see approach and are not overly concerned about rising inflation, hoping for an end to the conflict in the Middle East and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB and the BoE are prepared to raise key rates in the summer if acute necessity arises, but the Fed is not. It is unlikely that the positions of the central bank representatives have changed over the past week.

The geopolitical backdrop has begun to change, but unfortunately, words mean one thing, while facts indicate another. Officially, Iran and the US are about to sign a preliminary agreement that would allow for the final cessation of hostilities, begin the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, and coordinate terms for long-term peace in the Middle East. However, on the ground, Iran carried out attacks on the UAE and American destroyers on Monday and Tuesday, while the US fleet destroyed several Iranian boats in the Persian Gulf. On Thursday evening, reports of explosions in Iran emerged, but no additional information on this matter is currently available.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade with considerable volatility due to important macroeconomic data and geopolitical factors, which could "explode" the market at any moment. In fact, both the euro and the pound have been trading in a range for several weeks, but everything could change today. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1745-1.1754, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3587-1.3598. Volatility today may be low.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.