Despite traders' attempts last Friday to bring down Bitcoin after Kevin Warsh's speech, Bitcoin, along with Ethereum, remains stable, allowing for further bullish market development.

Data on spot Bitcoin ETFs for the week ending August 28 shows a net inflow of $924.48 million, marking the second consecutive strong weekly result after the previous week's inflow of $1.92 billion. Over the past two weeks, investors have put nearly $2.85 billion into Bitcoin ETFs, and the total asset value in this category has risen to $97.59 billion, approaching the $100 billion mark.

It's worth recalling that July was generally calm, with alternating weeks of modest positive inflows, such as $197.4 million on July 10 and $75.67 million on July 17, along with a single small outflow of $61.53 million on July 31. The turning point occurred in early August when the week ending August 7 saw a sharp inflow of $853.54 million against the backdrop of the U.S. Treasury's decision to double bond repurchases. After a brief pause, with an outflow of $389.71 million on August 14, the market showed its strongest performance of the period, with an inflow of $1.92 billion for the week ending August 21, coinciding with the peak of a short squeeze and a Bitcoin rally above $80,000. Notably, trading volume surged during the same period, rising from relatively modest levels of $6.94-$9.37 billion in July to $22.15 billion in the week of maximum inflow, confirming the market's transition from lethargic summer consolidation to a phase of heightened activity.

This backdrop contributed to the sharp episode at the end of last week. On Thursday, August 27, Bitcoin reached $81,455, but by Friday, following Warsh's first programmatic speech as Federal Reserve chair at the Jackson Hole symposium, the asset fell to $76,877-$77,838, losing 2.5-3.2% in a day. Warsh stated that the central bank "still has work to do" to achieve the 2% inflation target, placed responsibility for 65 months of elevated inflation on the central bank itself, and explicitly rejected the idea that Fed statements should serve as the sole guide for the market. The probability of an interest rate hike at the September meeting instantly jumped from 35% to the middle of the 50% range.

This speech interrupted the nine-day inflow streak for spot Bitcoin ETFs, resulting in a $202 million outflow on Friday. The market as a whole saw a wave of long-position liquidations totaling between $350 million and $468 million, with Ethereum losing 2.7% and XRP nearly 5%.

However, even such a sharp shift in rhetoric could not negate the overall strength of the August movement, as Bitcoin remains up 23.2% since August 15, and the total inflow into funds for the entire month is estimated at $3.1-$3.3 billion, one of the strongest results in the product's history.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $78,400, targeting a rise to the level of $79,200. At approximately $79,200, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $77,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $78,400 and $79,200.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $77,900, targeting a drop to the level of $77,000. At around $77,000, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $78,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $77,900 and $77,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,448, targeting a rise to the level of $2,480. At approximately $2,480, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary of $2,432 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $2,448 and $2,480.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,432, targeting a drop to the level of $2,403. At approximately $2,403, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $2,448 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $2,432 and $2,403.