Bitcoin has bounced back to around $64,000, but it is unlikely that this upward movement will lead to significant change. Ethereum also recovered at the beginning of the week, trading at $1,738.

However, Galaxy Research has recorded a figure that the crypto market has never seen: a 30-day outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $6.35 billion—an absolute record in the history of observations. This is the amount institutional investors withdrew from funds over a month of continuous pressure beginning in mid-May. The trend we have observed day by day—13, 17, 18, and renewed outflows after a brief respite—has resulted in a number that rewrites ETF market history. Previous outflow records pale in comparison: even during the FTX collapse in November 2022, such pressure on Bitcoin through regulated funds was not observed—simply because spot ETFs did not exist at that time.

This record has resulted from several consecutive waves of pressure, each of which we have analyzed in separate materials. First, there was a geopolitical shock: U.S. strikes on Iran and sanctions against the controller of the Hormuz Strait drove Bitcoin below $72,900, liquidating longs of nearly $500 million in an hour. Then, there was corporate pressure: Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in three and a half years, BlackRock withdrew nearly $2.2 billion to Coinbase Prime in ten days, and Tether transferred 204 BTC to Bitfinex. Simultaneously, there was a macroeconomic backdrop: the May CPI came in at 4.2%, and the Fed, under new chair Waller, signaled a tough stance for the entire year, with no rate cuts. Finally, there was competitive pressure: according to Saylor, about $400 billion over six months has gone into AI infrastructure, and upcoming IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI continue to draw institutional capital.

Against this backdrop, it is still too early to say that the market has found a bottom or is ready for recovery.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $62,900 with a target to rise to the level of $63,900. Around $63,900, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can buy Bitcoin off the lower boundary at $62,300 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back towards the levels of $62,900 and $63,900.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $62,300 with a target to fall to the level of $61,400. Around $61,400, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can sell Bitcoin off the upper boundary at $62,900 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back towards the levels of $62,300 and $61,400.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,701 with a target to rise to the level of $1,732. Around $1,732, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can buy Ethereum off the lower boundary at $1,682 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back towards the levels of $1,702 and $1,732.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,682 with a target to fall to the level of $1,652. Around $1,652, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can sell Ethereum off the upper boundary at $1,682 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back towards the levels of $1,702 and $1,732.