Bitcoin managed to recover about $6,000 and is likely to continue moving towards the only bearish FVG on the daily chart. In any case, on the daily timeframe, this is the only area of POI (point of interest) for new short positions. It should be remembered that any growth of Bitcoin at this time is a correction, and the correction can end at any moment. It does not necessarily occur within any specific pattern. Bitcoin continues to trade close to its annual lows, and most independent and uninterested experts predict further declines. We fully agree with these forecasts and believe that the downward trend is not over. There are no signs indicating the end of the bearish trend: no bullish patterns or breakage of the bearish structure. The fundamental backdrop also remains negative: the Federal Reserve has no intention of lowering the key rate in 2026, capital continues to flow into the AI sector, spot demand for Bitcoin remains weak, geopolitics is unstable, and miners are adapting their equipment to the requirements of artificial intelligence. We see no reason for a strong rise in "digital gold."

Meanwhile, one of Bitcoin's ardent supporters, Tim Draper, stated that his forecast of $250,000 per coin remains valid. Draper acquired about 30,000 Bitcoins back in 2014 at an average price of around $632 per coin. These coins are now valued at $1.9 billion, and Draper continues to wait for Bitcoin to rise to $250,000. Interestingly, the investor previously expected this milestone to be reached in 2022 or 2023. His "industry colleagues," Adam Back and Darrin Fink, also expect Bitcoin to show a new bullish rally. However, Back anticipates Bitcoin to reach between $500,000 and $1,000,000, while Fink expects growth to $700,000. The forecasts remain essentially unchanged; only the timelines for their realization are constantly being pushed forward. Thus, every trader can analyze and forecast as well as the head of BlackRock. They just need to say that Bitcoin will be worth a million dollars and wait.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as descending, and the CHOCH line is now at $82,800, as a new LL (Lower Low) was formed. Only above this level can it be considered that the downward trend is over. Since there are still no signs of an upward trend reversal, we believe the decline will continue. On the daily timeframe, a bearish FVG has formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range, which serves as the only POI for sales.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is in a downward trend; however, the overall correction is not yet complete. After liquidity was taken on the buy side, a rise began, as we had warned. Recently, only small, local FVGs have been forming, and the reaction to them has generally been very weak. The last formed FVG is bullish. The price reacted to it, providing traders the opportunity to open longs. However, we remind you that any current growth in Bitcoin is a correction. Whether to trade the correction is a decision each trader makes for themselves. We also note the liquidity pool below the trend line, which the price is likely to revisit with a 90% probability. We expect a new decline.

Recommendations for Trading BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend. We continue to expect a decline with a target of $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from a three-year upward trend), though this level has essentially already been tested. However, we do not believe that the downward trend will finish here. The last bearish FVG pattern formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range on the daily timeframe, so this area represents a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues its second wave of correction, but sell trades remain more attractive, as any rise now is inherently a correction.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• CHOCH – break of trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Area of price inefficiency. The price passes through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.
• IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it but impulsively breaks through, then tests from the other side.
• OB – Order block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to absorb liquidity for forming their position in the opposite direction.