Thursday Trade Analysis:

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward momentum during Thursday trading, staying above 1.1665, and showed a desire to continue rising overnight on Friday. Overall, for a strong trend, the current technical picture is quite ordinary: strong growth, minimal correction, and new growth. It is worth noting that under current circumstances, the euro can rise even without local support from news, events, or reports. The upward movement can continue without any visible reason. However, there are indeed reasons. And many of them... and they are significant. We have repeatedly listed a range of factors that will continue to exert strong pressure on the US dollar, but this can be summarized in one point: Donald Trump's policies. The US president needs a cheap dollar, strong economic growth, and a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. All of these attributes contribute to the decline of the American currency. It is pointless to list other important reasons. The dollar had one support factor in 2026—geopolitics. But it cannot constantly support the US currency against other factors.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. Considering all recent events, we believe the euro should continue its confident rise even without local support. In recent months, the market has stubbornly ignored many factors favoring the euro, so we continue to expect upward movement.

On Friday, novice traders can consider short positions with targets of 1.1584-1.1594 if the price consolidates below the 1.1584-1.1594 range. Long positions can be left open after the 1.1655-1.1665 area is breached, targeting 1.1745-1.1754.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1366-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1665, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837. On Friday, business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors will be published in the Eurozone, Germany, and the US. The American indices can be overlooked, while the European ones may provoke a slight market reaction.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.